Ken Worsley of Trans-Pacific Radio has made his prediction that Nova will no longer be functioning by November 1st.
You can listen to his prediction at 16:40 on the audio script here:
http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/08/16/bizcast-japan-7-retail-uniqlo-condo-prices-nova-mobile-price-wars-and-the-state-of-the-japanese-workplace/
By the way, Ken Worsley accurately predicted the downfall of NCB, another English conversation school that went bankrupt. His prediction, which was made a year earlier, was accurate within six weeks!
Saturday, September 8, 2007
Nova's Death Spiral
I've mentioned this before to some of my friends, but I'll post it here as well for posterity. Nova is in what I can only describe as a death spiral. Similar to a vicious circle, except spiraling downward towards the school's total demise. Just like a vortex or a whirlpool, the death spiral increases in force as one goes deeper, and there is no escape. Nova is in a similar situation I believe.
1) Students demand their money back. ---> 2) Nova doesn't have any money to give the students because Nova spent it all opening too many schools. ---> 3) Nova closes some schools to try and save money to pay the students back. ---> 4) Each time Nova closes a school, the students of those schools don't want to attend classes elsewhere so Nova ends up at at the top at number one again.
Many students joined Nova because it was convenient going to their local branch. Nova advertised itself as "Ekimae Ryugaku," or "Study abroad in front of the station," which was a big selling point. People are only willing to travel so far. Housewives, unless they work, don't usually have train passes to go across town. Likewise, most parents don't want their children traveling too far from home by themselves. Some students may have been willing to travel to the next station for lessons, but once that school also closes, how many will start clamoring for their money back too? Every time Nova closes another school, Nova just compounds the number of student complaints to METI and demands for refunds.
Lets not forget, in addition to student refunds, closing schools costs money. Long neglected repairs have to be made, booths dismantled, chairs, tables, computers, and carpet removed, etc. All of the school contents have to either be stored or throw away which costs money as large items cannot be just thrown out as regular trash. Signs must also be removed from the buildings which certainly isn't free either.
At first just a few of the smaller, branch schools closed, but now we are seeing some big names. Large flagship schools right in front of some of the busiest train stations in Japan are now slated to be closed. These are not recently opened schools with just a few students. These are large schools that have been around for many years with large student bodies. That means more students will certainly demand their money back. The spiral is tightening and squeezing out what little life there is left in Nova.
Bakananova
1) Students demand their money back. ---> 2) Nova doesn't have any money to give the students because Nova spent it all opening too many schools. ---> 3) Nova closes some schools to try and save money to pay the students back. ---> 4) Each time Nova closes a school, the students of those schools don't want to attend classes elsewhere so Nova ends up at at the top at number one again.
Many students joined Nova because it was convenient going to their local branch. Nova advertised itself as "Ekimae Ryugaku," or "Study abroad in front of the station," which was a big selling point. People are only willing to travel so far. Housewives, unless they work, don't usually have train passes to go across town. Likewise, most parents don't want their children traveling too far from home by themselves. Some students may have been willing to travel to the next station for lessons, but once that school also closes, how many will start clamoring for their money back too? Every time Nova closes another school, Nova just compounds the number of student complaints to METI and demands for refunds.
Lets not forget, in addition to student refunds, closing schools costs money. Long neglected repairs have to be made, booths dismantled, chairs, tables, computers, and carpet removed, etc. All of the school contents have to either be stored or throw away which costs money as large items cannot be just thrown out as regular trash. Signs must also be removed from the buildings which certainly isn't free either.
At first just a few of the smaller, branch schools closed, but now we are seeing some big names. Large flagship schools right in front of some of the busiest train stations in Japan are now slated to be closed. These are not recently opened schools with just a few students. These are large schools that have been around for many years with large student bodies. That means more students will certainly demand their money back. The spiral is tightening and squeezing out what little life there is left in Nova.
Bakananova
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